Interesting points. I would only correct the fact that MI & FL inclusion into the delegate selection process would increase the delegates needed to win to 2209 or something like that. If they don't count, it's 2024.

   didn't have a plan for past Super Tuesday. Why would she need an endgame now? After all...she's Hillary Clinton...the party will eventually see the error of it's ways, overturn the will of the voters and hand her the nomination. Why would she need an endgame? She's Hillary Clinton.

  Same attitude as before. Why should she campaign? She's Hillary Clinton, people like me, they'll vote for me.

   Boy did that strategy backfire.

raise enough money to pay off her $15,000,000 of debt.

She's planning to be President in 2012, after serving a term as McCain's VP.

I am more and more convinced of it every day.

It's the only way she can "beat" Obama, who dared to challenge her right to the throne;  take her acolytes away from the Democratic party, and con them into voting for McCain in 2008.  He's a one-term President because of his age, and she runs in 2012.  

Plan A (overwhelm all the other candidates on Super-Duper Tuesday) failed her back in February, and this is her Plan B.

I just can't find a more rational explanation for her recent behavior than this.

People insist that Hillary Clinton is a lifelong Democrat, that she would never run as McCain's VP.

But I ask you, does a Democrat...

... tell other Democrats, "If you aren't with us, you are against us?"

... threaten to obliterate a nation that has never attacked the United States?

... press for Congress to pass bad legislation first proposed by the Republican presidential candidate, despite the opposition of every expert in the area of the legislation, and the expressed opposition of the Democratic leadership in Congress, for the sake of picking up a few meaningless primary votes?

Her game plan has changed since it became clear that the Superdelegates are trending, along with the pledged delegates, toward Obama, since it became clear that there is no way for her to legitimately earn the Democratic nomination.

There's no way that McCain, if elected, is going to serve more than one term in the White House.

What better way for Hillary to give Barack Obama and Howard Dean a big "f*@k you", and make it as likely as possible that she'll be well-positioned for the presidency in 2012, than to take her ardent supporters and convince them to vote with the Republicans for a McCain/Clinton ticket?

Her endgame is that by winning the popular vote, the large industrial states needed to win in November, and by positioning herself as a "fighter" and tough-as-nails no-nonsense leader, the supers will not be foolish enough to take a gamble on a novice like Obama.

I can't stress the popular vote enough. My gut tells me that the supers are looking for something concrete to point to which makes their argument easy for supporting Clinton. When Clinton clinches the popular vote after all the primaries, I think her argument will be just as effective as Obama's argument that he leads by about 100 pledged delegates.

When evaluating their strengths, Obama played well with the grassroots activists in caucus states. Clinton won all of the large state primaries because of her appeal to more traditional democrats.

Something tells me that the party elders force Obama to be on Hillary's ticket as a VP, knowing that she is the more seasoned and electable, while acknowledging that he is more charismatic and appealing to younger voters and AA's.

The problem is that I don't think she can name a VP. If she were to somehow get this, she would not only have to offer the VP slot to Obama but the party would have to find a way to force him to take it.

I think Chris Matthews put it best when he asked that if Clinton finds a way to beat Obama, where does she hide the body?

Obama will still be a huge figure and will be a constant reminder of what could have been.

I think the fact the super delegates haven't all rushed to Obama is encouraging for Clinton, something is holding them back.

Here's a few things she could do or try to do:

- Get an Edwards endorsement and hope his 25 delegates follow his lead

- Get the FL and MI delegates seated netting her 55 delegates

- Promise Obama the VP slot, this would allow supers to vote for her worrying less about offending AAs

- As you have said, get some extensive polling done that shows her as more electable

These aren't easy things for her to do, but she's in a difficult position and there is no easy way out.

If she can keep it very close in NC tomorrow and win a blow out in Indiana it will become a lot easier for her.

(1) Adding Florida and Michigan change both the numerator and denominator.  The total number of delegates required would be substantially more if those two states are counted.

(2) You are assuming that Obama  will get 100% of the uncommitted delegates.  But the uncommitted delegates have already been selected, and he won about 2/3 of them.  The others belong to union slates that could go either way.  I suspect they'll go with whoever has strong momentum.

(3) Hillary also has a good lead among super delegates in Michigan and Florida who have declared their preference..

The bottom line--if she finishes very strong in the next 8 contests, you will positive movement on the MI/FL questions giving her many more delegates from those two contests, as well as super delegates swinging her way.  On the other hand, if Obama finishes strong, he's got the nomination.

In other words, it all comes down to the remaining contests, starting with the two key contests tomorrow.

She's the team that 6 games out with 8 games left to play. The endgame is just to keep it alive, day by day, primary after primary and hope the opponent makes a mistake or that she catches a break.

I don't think Clinton can focus on netting delegates via FL and MI --- Obama get delegates too and he will hit his magic number.  

Clsing the gap is a win for Obama.  I think you need to stop the delegate count and force a rethink by Supers here.

Aslo finishing strong is impossible here (as far as gaining delegates), the margin is still going to be roughly 100.  FL and MI represents 185 and 128 pledged delegates respectively.  Geting only 40% puts him over the mark and plays into Supers falling like dominoes for him, I think

January 20, 2009

i think she needs both states tomorrow to have an endgame. otherwise, we will all suddenly hear about how west virginia and kentucky are now the microcosms of the entire democratic electorate.

here's how she wins:

1.) somehow, get michigan and florida seated as is, and get the supers to take their popular votes at face value, even though bho wasn't on the michigan ballot. that will net her 120 delegates, and probably put her into a slight lead over obama after all is said and done. for this to work, he CANNOT receive any part of the michigan delegation.

2.) convince the obama supporters that no. 1 isn't a completely bullshit move, and beg obama to be her veep candidate. keep in mind that scenario 1 only happens after a floor-fight, which decreases the eventual nominee's chances of winning in november substantially.

3.) win out. she needs to pull an upset in oregon or north carolina, something to show that obama has totally collapsed.

4.) win the popular vote without michigan and florida. this is nearly impossible.

of those, no. 1 is her best bet. but, i think, that basically destroys the party, clinton loses in november, and obama's the de facto nominee in 2012.  

point is, i see no scenario under which she becomes president. FWIW if she wins the nomination, i'll probably vote for her.

Your math is wrong. Seating Michigan and Florida increase the number of delegates required to nominate. It would net Clinton at least a 55 delegate gain on Obama, probably more. If that happens later this month, the whole thing changes dramatically.

Without it, she must hope she demonstrates enough momentum and exposes Obama enough to gain a big nod from the remaining supers.

Than many of the people the HRC campaign is paying millions of dollars.

I think her major problem with super delegates, and this is just a guess, is that many of them resent the way the campaign has been run. Now, HRC supporters, please don't waste your time trying to tell me why they are wrong etc - it's just a hunch of mine, and anything you say probably wouldn't matter to a SD who thinks this way.

1) I think they don't like how she put McCain and herself on a pedastal and suggested Obama doesn't belong in the race;

2. I think they are worried about the way her campaign has performed strategically (fund raising, lack of coherent messages), and tactically (disorganized after 2/5; losing caucus states)
   
3. I think that there may be some SDs who see this as a generational/transitional primary - between the Clinton/DLC "machine" and whatever comes afterwards - and many may see Obama as one of th e future leaders of the party

4) I think many of the SDs are seriously worried that Hillary, even with the troubles with Wright, is still the candidate that the GOP thinks will be easier to defeat.

Those are the reasons I think it's unlikely that you're going to see SDs who have already chosen Obama to switch back. I don't know that there is anything more Hillary can do to win over the SDs - it's really up to the Obama campaign. That IMO is why Hillary is still in the race. If some catastrophic mistake is made or revelation comes out that absolutely sinks the Obama campaign, she wants to be in the perfect position to assume the spot.  

Let's start the scenario with her winning more than 55% of the remaining delegates, then add at least some delegates from MI and FL in proportion of votes won. The unpledged delegates (even some who say they support Obama) will exercise their right to vote for whomever they think will beat McCain in November.  All of a sudden we're talking about Obama's endgame instead, aren't we?

Obma's emdgame is simpler, he's likely to have won the most ledged delegates and the most states.  he will proably have the most votes (sans Michigan and Florida but more proable more votes win Florida included).

His argument is made.

When you are in second place and your votes keep the person in first place from being the winner,m can you leapfrog into first place.

I think, and I appreciate the toned down comments and the focus on how HRC can turn this, Clinton needs to neutralize three groups, uncommitted Supers, any pledged delegates from FL and MI (even those most are pledged to her), and the media apparatus.  

To me, boldly picking a VP nominee helps all three.  Plus finding a relatively young politician with minority appeal would dovetail nicely towards this end

Regardless of who they support now ---

Bobby Scott of VA
Kendrick Meek of FL
Hank Johnson of GA
Chaka Fattah of PA
Either Senator or Rep Salazar of CO

Just off the top of my head, any of these candidates could break uncommitted delegates towards HRC